Forecasters warn of a 'hyperactive' hurricane season ahead
Record-warm oceans and a developing La Niña prompted one of the most alarming seasonal outlooks ever issued.
Government forecasters issued one of the most alarming hurricane season outlooks on record this May, warning of a potentially "hyperactive" Atlantic season driven by record-warm ocean temperatures and the expected development of La Niña.
The forecast called for a well above-average number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, with forecasters expressing unusually high confidence given the combination of factors aligning in favour of an active season.
Chief among them were ocean temperatures across the tropical Atlantic that were running at record or near-record warmth for the time of year, providing abundant fuel for developing storms. At the same time, the fading of El Niño and the anticipated arrival of La Niña pointed to reduced wind shear, allowing storms to organise and strengthen more easily.
Forecasters stressed, as always, that seasonal outlooks indicate the likely overall level of activity, not where or whether storms will make landfall, and that it takes only one strike to make a season catastrophic for a given community.
Officials used the dire forecast to urge early preparation along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. The warning proved well-founded, as the season went on to produce a string of powerful and destructive storms. The outlook underscored how warming oceans are loading the dice toward more active and dangerous hurricane seasons.