Forecasters expect a slightly calmer hurricane season
After several hyperactive years, the new outlook called for near- to slightly-below-average activity, though the risk of destructive storms remained.
Forecasters issued a somewhat less alarming hurricane season outlook this spring, predicting near- to slightly-below-average activity in the Atlantic after several hyperactive years, though they cautioned that the risk of destructive storms remained high.
The forecast reflected a shift in the large-scale conditions that influence hurricane activity, including changes in ocean temperatures and the state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which can enhance or suppress storm formation. After a run of seasons fuelled by record-warm waters, conditions appeared somewhat less primed for a hyperactive year.
Forecasters emphasised, as they do every year, that a quieter overall season offers no guarantee of safety for any particular community. The number of storms says nothing about where they will go, and a single powerful hurricane striking a populated coastline can make even a below-average season catastrophic.
They urged coastal residents to prepare as they would in any year, reviewing evacuation plans, assembling supplies and understanding their specific risks from surge, wind and flooding.
The outlook was a reminder that hurricane activity varies from year to year with natural climate patterns, even against the backdrop of long-term warming. While warming seas raise the ceiling on storm intensity over time, the character of any single season depends on a complex interplay of factors that forecasters work to anticipate months in advance.