2024 set to be the warmest year ever, and first above 1.5C
Scientists projected that the year would surpass 2023 as the hottest on record, crossing a symbolic threshold.
Scientists projected this December that 2024 would surpass the previous year to become the warmest in recorded history, and the first full calendar year with average global temperatures more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — a symbolic and sobering threshold.
The year extended an extraordinary run of record heat, with month after month ranking among the warmest ever measured. The warmth was driven by the relentless build-up of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, with an additional temporary boost from the El Niño pattern that had since faded.
Crossing 1.5 degrees for a single year does not mean the world has permanently breached the Paris climate target, which refers to a long-term average over decades. But it brought the planet uncomfortably close to a line that nations had pledged to stay well below, and scientists warned it foreshadowed what sustained warming at that level would feel like.
The record heat drove extremes across the globe throughout the year, from deadly heat waves and catastrophic floods to intense hurricanes and record-low sea ice, offering a vivid preview of a hotter world.
Researchers reiterated that the trajectory is not fixed: how much hotter the planet becomes still depends on how quickly emissions are reduced. But the back-to-back record years underscored the accelerating pace of warming and the mounting urgency of cutting the pollution driving it.